Deutsche Bank preview, issue 4 2012

Hey all,                  Running total: -$75

Last week's recap.

I know I'm speaking through my pocket, but Stricker was disappointing for mine. Ok he did make the cut, as I thought he would, but I'm sure he would agree with me that his performance was below par (pardon the pun).

He really didn't let loose at any stage, given he can catch fire at times and make streaks of birdies. He uncharacteristically made a lot of bogeys, perhaps with the pressure of knowing he needed a good effort to make the Ryder Cup. Bottom line is he didn't win for us.

So to this week.

Perhaps not surprisingly, there are any number of chances. My research suggests this is a scorers event, as opposed to a grinders event. So with that in mind, I have narrowed it down to two.

Louis Oosthuizen ($26) & Bubba Watson ($26) are my top picks. I have a slight leaning to the South African and here's why.

He makes birdies.
He has performed well in big events (think Open, Masters).
When he has won or performed well, his GIR is usually very high. He was over 70% at the Masters, over 80% @ the Houston open and even when it comes down, its amongst the leaders for the event. He was just short of 78% last week and got a T5. I'll be having my first $15 on him.

The other $10 is on
Bubba. Why? Because Bubba is Bubba. He also has pretty good GIR stats and with his flair and imagination, he can always post a number. I guess we're punting on him hitting his % of greens this week, but if he does look out. He's been around the mark the last few events since his missed cut at the
US open and his performances in the tougher WGC events this year is noteworthy.

There are some dangers. In order: Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker, who can bounce back. If you love having a hail Mary bet, give Brendan de Jonge a go at upwards of $201. He's $11 to finish top 10.

In theory its easier as the fields narrow over the next few weeks, but we all know that's a myth.

Time to get a collect on the board or this blog will go the way of cassettes and VHS.

Oh and for those interested, my first round last week in the clubbies was a disaster. I'd suggest sticking to punting golf rather than playing, but that hasn't been much better. Fingers crossed that changes this week.

Best of luck,

Disco

The Barclays Preview Issue no. 3 2012

Hello golfers and punters,

Firstly to last weeks recap.

Well what can be said about last week. Punters will always look for positives (cheers to Quinny for trying to make me feel better) so lets focus on my "dangers" and how close they got.

Simpson, Dufner and Pettersson were all in with a show going into the final round, which incidently was delayed due to weather (some of these tour pros need to harden up, am I right weekend golfers??). I'm not sure the delay contributed to the result, but congrats must go to Sergio for ending a slump and winning not only the tournament, but a spot in the Ryder Cup.

As stated last week, form means nothing and JB Holmes reinforced that in the most emphatic way. Don't buy into the back him this week in case he backs up - my guys get one chance and one chance only. Unless I truly believe they can improve/win again etc. He can't.

Following a suggestion (thanks KGB), I will post a running tally so we can keep track of how we are going. This is based on my $25 spend per week, your outlay and therefore returns will most likely be different.

The tally will be near the top of the page in future issues.

Running tally (2 weeks) : $50

The Barclays

The playoffs begin and what a venue, Bethpage.

I believe you will need US Open type skills to do well this week, so with that in mind, I have selected Steve Stricker ($26). His record really speaks for itself, but just in case you've never heard of him:

He's only missed one cut this year (100% cuts made last year)
Has filled every place on the podium at this event since 2007
Is in form *gasp* with 3 top 10's in his past 4 starts.

I know this is not much of a stretch suggesting he can win, but I'm not trying to pick the 100-1 shot that nobody else does, I'm trying to select the winner. I think bigtime players step up when it counts and he is quality, so here's hoping he can get across the line for all of us.

I'll be having my $25 straight out on him this week, no top Aussie or top 25 bets, just go with the man that wears his hat too far forward.

I had planned to do some work on the Johnnie Walker event in Europe, but work has got in the way. I am not betting and haven't done the form, but I'll be keeping an eye on Anders Hansen ($34). I like the big Dane and wouldn't be surprised to see him do well. Feel free to have a little something on him with very little recommendation from me! Sometimes not doing the form can work!

Good luck to all playing and punting this weekend. Its the first round of my club championships, so I'd love to be writing this next week with a good round under my belt and a fistful of cash!

Cheers

Disco

Wyndham Championship Preview 2012

G'day all,

Firstly, a recap of last week.

Jason Dufner was the tip and whilst we didn't get the chocolates, I would suggest we got a run for our money. Especially if you backed him for top 25. He missed that by a shot, but did shoot 5 under for the weekend. Not sure anybody could have beat Rory the way he dominated the weekend.

"Sendo" was also close to the mark, shot 1 under over the weekend and probably needed the others in front of him to fall a bit harder.

As stated, it's a tough gig and while this week is "sub standard" given a number of players are taking the week off (no disrespect to those teeing it up), we'll have another crack.

Wyndham Championship

This week is sort of a lst gasp for many trying to make the playoffs, so expect some blokes to come out blazing.

I am on JB Holmes at $51 at the price. He has been very consistent of late, making his past 7 cuts and 15 of 19 for the season. He is knocking on the door and I like players in form, even though that is no recommendation of a polished performance. Probably look at 1 unit the win, triple that top 5.

I think JB has a little more to play for than some others, even though he is well inside the cut for the playoffs. I'm sure (without talking to him) he'd love a high finish to get further inside the number to progress deeper into the playoffs.

I think you have to concede Dufner a chance again, defending champ Simpson is also in the mix and if you are purely talking form, the big Swede Pettersson has to be thereabouts. If you want a roughie for some fun, give Jason Bohn a run at around the $81 mark. Has a fair record in this event, so maybe a little interest wager.

Nothing else this week. The women are playing the Safeway and there is a web.com event but it's hard enough finding the winner on the big stage!

Good luck, good punting and great golf!

Cheers

Disco

2012 PGA Championship Preview - Issue 1

G'Day,
Probably a tough week to start a blog on punting on golf, with the last major of the year, but let's have a crack.
Welcome to the first edition of Flop Shots, my thoughts on punting successfully on golf. I have had some successes in the past but as anyone who has ever had a bet on the golf knows, it's bloody tough. Guys that have form or have previously performed well at an event, can have shockers. And guys that haven't been sighted for ages can turn it around very quickly.
I will not be suggesting how much to outlay on these suggestions, that is up to the individual.  I rarely have anymore than $20 on an outright bet, simply because the value is normally very good. You can turn $20 into $1000 if you find the right winner. Of course if you are backing a favorite, which in golf betting pre post is still likely to be $6 and upwards, you may need to increase your stake if you want a bigger profit. Each to their own.
To this week's golf:
PGA Championship
There is always a case for a favourite or a roughie, but this week I am with Jason Dufner ($23). When you consider his last 7 starts have provided 2 wins,  a second at the Crowne Plaza, a T4 at the US Open and a 7th at last weeks Bridgestone, he ticks a lot of boxes. He's clearly in form, he's only missed the one cut this year (first event at Sony Hawaii) and finished second in this event last year.
Add to that his FIR (66%) and his GIR (69%) and he has the tools to get around Kiawah with minimal mistakes. His first two rounds are generally his best and if he can get the flat stick going early, he can be a bit streaky.
I know he's in the top 5 in betting which makes him one of the favoured players, but $23 is great value. If you prefer to hedge the bet a little, he is $3.75 to finish top 10, which would make a nice leg of a multi.
Top Aussie
Because this is the first issue and it is a major, I'll make a suggestion for this market.
John Senden has been in pretty good form over the past month and in fact the past year on the PGA tour. He has made 14 of 17 cuts this year and currently sits 37th in FedEx Cup pts. He has 5 top 10's from those 14 cuts made and I think if he finishes top 10, he will be leading Aussie (unless an Aussie wins of course). He was T19 last year and T4 in 2007 so he has performed in this in the past, although there are some badly missed cuts in there too. He hasn't won since the 2006 John Deere but remember we are not backing him to win - theoretically he could be well down the list but leading Aussie.
Adam Scott is the obvious at $3, but the value is with Sendo.
I wouldn't be going too hard on this bet though.
Other stuff
There are any number of exotics to be played like HTH's, low round score, etc but it is hard enough to pick the winner of the tournament let alone who shoots the opening round blinder. It's not unusual to see a highly regarded player underperform in the first round only to bounce back in round two. This will kill your HTH betting, which is normally a multi to increase the price.
If you must have a first round low score wager, have a gold coin on Spencer Levin ($101). His stats don't reflect it, but his first round is quite often his best and he does have a 62 to his name.
Good luck, good golfing and great punting!
Cheers
Disco Stu

Background

Hi all. This blog will be about punting on golf. In America, Europe, you name it.
A bit about me. I am a single figure golfer, currently off 8 but been as low as 4. I love a punt on most things and watch a lot of golf. Foxtel is my best friend on weekends!
I used to write an email each week called Flop Shots and send it around to my mates. This may make it easier to share it around. Although some will ask what my credentials are, I see this as a bit of fun so please bear that in mind when placing a wager.
In giving my thoughts, I will outline why I think someone can win or can't and why others may be better value than backing Tiger etc as a favourite. Some betting suggestions will be top 10 or 25, low first round or leading nationality, eg Australian at the Open etc.
I hope you enjoy reading it.
Stay tuned for the first edition.

PS. I did successfully tip JJ Henry to win the Reno Tahoe Open this past weekend at $41 so fingers crossed we find some more of these.