Wednesday 21 November 2012
NZ Open
Thursday 18 October 2012
McGladrey Preview
Hello again golf fans. Balance: -$150 ( this includes the $25 that is already lost on some poor bugger called Chris Wood)
I don't want to hear any more talk of tipping golfers that aren't actually playing.
To the McGladrey event in the US.
It's a little stronger field this week, but I am claiming a win last week because I don't think I would have selected Blixt in my top 10, despite his recent good form. I guess all rookies have to break through at some point, but try telling that to Jeff Overton. 188 starts without a win. Can play though, so surely his time will come. One day. Not this week.
Ok. I've had a liking for my top tip this week for some time because he hits it a tonne and that's Gary Woodland ($41). He's had a frustrating year. Injury curtailed much of the early part of the year ( think it was his wrist, can anybody confirm/ deny??) and lately he's undergone some swing changes, so he is probably up against it. But he's fully qualified for next season and sometimes that will free a bloke up to play his best golf. He showed enough last week to suggest there is a little something there, so the first $15 is on him, straight out. He hit almost 70% of greens and fairways last week to get his best result for the year. Let's hope he builds on that and carries the momentum into this week.
The last $10 will be invested on a bloke with a putter as hot as my own, Martin Flores ($81). I read somewhere this week that he has leapt up the rankings of strokes gained putting, so did some research of mine and its true! He could be described as middle of the road in the past but his stats of recent times indicate that he has done some work with the flat stick. Here it comes again, but if he can hit a high% of greens, he has to be some sort of chance. His best results have been when he has got close to or better than 70% GIR, so fingers crossed he can achieve numbers like that this week.
Good luck if you're having a flutter this week and also on the course.
Cheers
Disco
Wednesday 17 October 2012
Perth international preview
Hi all,
Just a quick thought on the event starting in Perth in a few hours time.
Its hard to get a gauge on a formline as this is a new event. But obviously there is some talent in the field headed by Jason Dufner, who has had a stellar year, although from the point I selected him a month or so ago, he's dropped away a little. And you have to rate big hitting American Bo van Pelt, another to have a solid year. These two head the betting which is no surprise, but as usual I'm looking for a bit of value.
Lake Karinyup is a fantastic track and with the weather tipped to be sunny for the majority of the tournament, their beautiful greens are likely to speed up over the four days. I've realised it lately in my own game that if you putt well, you invariably score well.
So with that as my mantra, I'm tipping Chris Wood @ $101. This guy rates as one of the best putters I've ever seen and his stats back that up, so if he can hit enough greens (as always a big if with many players), he's a huge chance IMO. Almost incredibly, you can get $51 the place (top 5), so perhaps that is a smarter option. Fingers crossed.
I'm also going to make mention of two mates of mine teeing it up, Andrew Martin and Kris Mueck. Both have the potential to post low numbers as shown by Kris least week at Kalgoorlie with a final round 7 under 65. At $126 & $151 respectively, personally I think they a touch unders. I would love to be proven wrong and wish both boys the very best of luck. Look forward to setting them both on Fox sports during the coverage!
A separate post will be uploaded later for the US event.
Cheers
Disco
Thursday 11 October 2012
Fry's.com preview
Hi all. Balance -$125
Last weeks recap.
No changes to the tally last week as Kyle Stanley was a late withdrawal.
To this week.
I have done the form, read the so called experts thoughts and I am no clearer in my opinion of who will win this second rate tournament. That's perhaps a bit harsh, because there are some quality players amongst the field, but there are plenty of blokes that simply can't win. In theory that should narrow it down and make it easier to find the winner, but I think it makes it harder because I'm not sure how many " winners" there are in the field.
So... call me soft, but I won't be having a bet. Yes I know, i know. But as much as I love a punt, i can't bring myself to plonk $25 on someone just for the sake of it. I can hear everybody bagging me, but i think its smart. Leaves the cash for the races as well!
Ok. So if I had got my act together earlier, i would have done some form for the Portugal masters. I had the quickest of looks and I like Alex Noren. I have not looked at the early scores, so I may look like a genius already, but most likely a goose.
Stay tuned for next week though, because I have some early thoughts on the Perth International.
Congrats again to the main man at the Royal Axedale tourney, Lexdale, who shot 70-71 to win the J G Mill cup. Well played son.
Till next week, good luck if having a wager or a whack this weekend.
Cheers
Disco
Thursday 4 October 2012
JT Shriners preview
Short and sharp this week. Time has been against me all week.
This week is almost a Web.com event, the strength of the field lies in the players that can compete on the bigger stage.
That's why I'm with Kyle Stanley @ $34. He finished 31st in FedEx Cup standings and was tied 10th in this event last year. He started really well this year with a 2 & then a win in Phoenix, so if he can recapture that sort of form, he will dominate this.
Best of luck to the Bendigo DGA in the last round of Country week tomorrow and to all those teeing it up at Royal Axedale this Sunday.
Cheers
Thursday 20 September 2012
The Tour Championship preview
Hi all. Balance: -$125
Recapping the last event.
Kooch was never likely after starting solidly enough, he just didn't get it done. As stated previously, golf betting is extremely difficult and past form can stand for nought when you arrive at the first tee Thursday.
I am hanging my hat on my hail Mary roughie selection, Robert Garrigus. I suggested top 10, which returned 20-1. But if you had somehow gone each way (or top 5), you would have got a return of 40-1 after he stormed home on Sunday. I can honestly say I didn't back him, but wished I had!
To this week. Not much to say about this week because I'm not betting in a 30 man field.
Stating the obvious but Rory just wins. I've had a look at the stats and I can't see how he loses. He will need to be at his best, but he has lately and perhaps only the week's break can bring him undone. Tiger obvious danger but again, form is only relevant to your last start and if he doesn't catch fire, he can't win.
Like I said I'm not betting because my top tip is as short as $5.50 with some agencies.
I will make one call. Steve Stricker showed somewhat of a return to form last week, so throw him in a multi over the weekend to finish top 10 ($2.35). Almost seems incredible you can bet top 10 with such a small field and that seems great value.
Congrats to the man of the hour at Royal Axedale, Sexy, on his course record 65 & club championship win. Awesome display.
Good golfing and punting this weekend.
Disco
Wednesday 5 September 2012
The BMW Preview issue 5 2012
A short turnaround from the late finish last week, so let's jump into the recap.
Louis, Louis, Louis. It was yours (and therefore ours) for the taking. It was hard to watch you shoot an even par round on the final day when a lazy 2 under 69 would have made all of us very happy.
I'm reluctant to say that "we got a run for our money" last week because I'd rather he miss the cut than go down to the last hole, if the end result is going to be the same. But just the same, we are getting closer, so fingers crossed a W is just around the corner.
Anyway, as they say in the classics, there's always next week, so lets take a look at the BMW.
The BMW Championships.
It seems widely known that this weeks event is a bombers paradise, but I am shying away from that a little.
I am going with a guy I have a lot of time for - Matt Kuchar ($51). Kooch is the all american good guy - clean cut (that I am aware of), always smiling and genuinely seems happy to be playing golf for a living.
There are reasons for my selection, as always:
He doesn't hit it a mile, granted, but he does hit 2/3rds of all fairways and greens and that will be just as important as smashing it out there 300 this week.
His all around stats rank him 11th, which shows that while not leading any particular category, he is solid in all areas. If he gets the flat stick going, he can be dangerous (as can 500 other blokes on tour).
He is a winner (4 times career), and by that I mean he usually performs well at the bigger events. Look at his recent history and his best performances come at the Masters, Bridgestone etc, WGC's and majors where the cream rises.
He's had a T10 and T3 in the past three years here, so at $51 for a bloke sitting 13th in Fedex Cup points, lets have a crack at him. $20 will return a lovely big hairy gorilla mid morning Monday (australian time).
I'm going to have a saver on Bubba at $34, which covers the bombers theory. Good enough to win the Masters, good enough to win here. And possibly fresh after missing the cut last week. Our last $5 on him will get us back in the black overall.
Others to keep an eye are Keegan, Jeff Overton and a bloke at $151, Robert Garrigus. Terrible putter, but does golf his ball well and long off the tee. Maybe top 10 chance.
Shout out to a couple of golfing buddies of mine - Buttsy, congrats on the safe arrival of Macey during the week (sign her up for the LPGA now if pedigree is anything to go by) and to Sexy, who is attempting to win the local club championship for a record 11th time. Fantastic effort.
Good luck, good punting and good golfing.
Thursday 30 August 2012
Deutsche Bank preview, issue 4 2012
Hey all, Running total: -$75
Last week's recap.
I know I'm speaking through my pocket, but Stricker was disappointing for mine. Ok he did make the cut, as I thought he would, but I'm sure he would agree with me that his performance was below par (pardon the pun).
He really didn't let loose at any stage, given he can catch fire at times and make streaks of birdies. He uncharacteristically made a lot of bogeys, perhaps with the pressure of knowing he needed a good effort to make the Ryder Cup. Bottom line is he didn't win for us.
So to this week.
Perhaps not surprisingly, there are any number of chances. My research suggests this is a scorers event, as opposed to a grinders event. So with that in mind, I have narrowed it down to two.
Louis Oosthuizen ($26) & Bubba Watson ($26) are my top picks. I have a slight leaning to the South African and here's why.
He makes birdies.
He has performed well in big events (think Open, Masters).
When he has won or performed well, his GIR is usually very high. He was over 70% at the Masters, over 80% @ the Houston open and even when it comes down, its amongst the leaders for the event. He was just short of 78% last week and got a T5. I'll be having my first $15 on him.
The other $10 is on
Bubba. Why? Because Bubba is Bubba. He also has pretty good GIR stats and with his flair and imagination, he can always post a number. I guess we're punting on him hitting his % of greens this week, but if he does look out. He's been around the mark the last few events since his missed cut at the
US open and his performances in the tougher WGC events this year is noteworthy.
There are some dangers. In order: Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker, who can bounce back. If you love having a hail Mary bet, give Brendan de Jonge a go at upwards of $201. He's $11 to finish top 10.
In theory its easier as the fields narrow over the next few weeks, but we all know that's a myth.
Time to get a collect on the board or this blog will go the way of cassettes and VHS.
Oh and for those interested, my first round last week in the clubbies was a disaster. I'd suggest sticking to punting golf rather than playing, but that hasn't been much better. Fingers crossed that changes this week.
Best of luck,
Disco
Wednesday 22 August 2012
The Barclays Preview Issue no. 3 2012
Firstly to last weeks recap.
Well what can be said about last week. Punters will always look for positives (cheers to Quinny for trying to make me feel better) so lets focus on my "dangers" and how close they got.
Simpson, Dufner and Pettersson were all in with a show going into the final round, which incidently was delayed due to weather (some of these tour pros need to harden up, am I right weekend golfers??). I'm not sure the delay contributed to the result, but congrats must go to Sergio for ending a slump and winning not only the tournament, but a spot in the Ryder Cup.
As stated last week, form means nothing and JB Holmes reinforced that in the most emphatic way. Don't buy into the back him this week in case he backs up - my guys get one chance and one chance only. Unless I truly believe they can improve/win again etc. He can't.
Following a suggestion (thanks KGB), I will post a running tally so we can keep track of how we are going. This is based on my $25 spend per week, your outlay and therefore returns will most likely be different.
The tally will be near the top of the page in future issues.
Running tally (2 weeks) : $50
The Barclays
The playoffs begin and what a venue, Bethpage.
I believe you will need US Open type skills to do well this week, so with that in mind, I have selected Steve Stricker ($26). His record really speaks for itself, but just in case you've never heard of him:
He's only missed one cut this year (100% cuts made last year)
Has filled every place on the podium at this event since 2007
Is in form *gasp* with 3 top 10's in his past 4 starts.
I know this is not much of a stretch suggesting he can win, but I'm not trying to pick the 100-1 shot that nobody else does, I'm trying to select the winner. I think bigtime players step up when it counts and he is quality, so here's hoping he can get across the line for all of us.
I'll be having my $25 straight out on him this week, no top Aussie or top 25 bets, just go with the man that wears his hat too far forward.
I had planned to do some work on the Johnnie Walker event in Europe, but work has got in the way. I am not betting and haven't done the form, but I'll be keeping an eye on Anders Hansen ($34). I like the big Dane and wouldn't be surprised to see him do well. Feel free to have a little something on him with very little recommendation from me! Sometimes not doing the form can work!
Good luck to all playing and punting this weekend. Its the first round of my club championships, so I'd love to be writing this next week with a good round under my belt and a fistful of cash!
Cheers
Disco
Wednesday 15 August 2012
Wyndham Championship Preview 2012
Firstly, a recap of last week.
Jason Dufner was the tip and whilst we didn't get the chocolates, I would suggest we got a run for our money. Especially if you backed him for top 25. He missed that by a shot, but did shoot 5 under for the weekend. Not sure anybody could have beat Rory the way he dominated the weekend.
"Sendo" was also close to the mark, shot 1 under over the weekend and probably needed the others in front of him to fall a bit harder.
As stated, it's a tough gig and while this week is "sub standard" given a number of players are taking the week off (no disrespect to those teeing it up), we'll have another crack.
Wyndham Championship
This week is sort of a lst gasp for many trying to make the playoffs, so expect some blokes to come out blazing.
I am on JB Holmes at $51 at the price. He has been very consistent of late, making his past 7 cuts and 15 of 19 for the season. He is knocking on the door and I like players in form, even though that is no recommendation of a polished performance. Probably look at 1 unit the win, triple that top 5.
I think JB has a little more to play for than some others, even though he is well inside the cut for the playoffs. I'm sure (without talking to him) he'd love a high finish to get further inside the number to progress deeper into the playoffs.
I think you have to concede Dufner a chance again, defending champ Simpson is also in the mix and if you are purely talking form, the big Swede Pettersson has to be thereabouts. If you want a roughie for some fun, give Jason Bohn a run at around the $81 mark. Has a fair record in this event, so maybe a little interest wager.
Nothing else this week. The women are playing the Safeway and there is a web.com event but it's hard enough finding the winner on the big stage!
Good luck, good punting and great golf!
Cheers
Disco
Tuesday 7 August 2012
2012 PGA Championship Preview - Issue 1
Probably a tough week to start a blog on punting on golf, with the last major of the year, but let's have a crack.
Welcome to the first edition of Flop Shots, my thoughts on punting successfully on golf. I have had some successes in the past but as anyone who has ever had a bet on the golf knows, it's bloody tough. Guys that have form or have previously performed well at an event, can have shockers. And guys that haven't been sighted for ages can turn it around very quickly.
I will not be suggesting how much to outlay on these suggestions, that is up to the individual. I rarely have anymore than $20 on an outright bet, simply because the value is normally very good. You can turn $20 into $1000 if you find the right winner. Of course if you are backing a favorite, which in golf betting pre post is still likely to be $6 and upwards, you may need to increase your stake if you want a bigger profit. Each to their own.
To this week's golf:
PGA Championship
There is always a case for a favourite or a roughie, but this week I am with Jason Dufner ($23). When you consider his last 7 starts have provided 2 wins, a second at the Crowne Plaza, a T4 at the US Open and a 7th at last weeks Bridgestone, he ticks a lot of boxes. He's clearly in form, he's only missed the one cut this year (first event at Sony Hawaii) and finished second in this event last year.
Add to that his FIR (66%) and his GIR (69%) and he has the tools to get around Kiawah with minimal mistakes. His first two rounds are generally his best and if he can get the flat stick going early, he can be a bit streaky.
I know he's in the top 5 in betting which makes him one of the favoured players, but $23 is great value. If you prefer to hedge the bet a little, he is $3.75 to finish top 10, which would make a nice leg of a multi.
Top Aussie
Because this is the first issue and it is a major, I'll make a suggestion for this market.
John Senden has been in pretty good form over the past month and in fact the past year on the PGA tour. He has made 14 of 17 cuts this year and currently sits 37th in FedEx Cup pts. He has 5 top 10's from those 14 cuts made and I think if he finishes top 10, he will be leading Aussie (unless an Aussie wins of course). He was T19 last year and T4 in 2007 so he has performed in this in the past, although there are some badly missed cuts in there too. He hasn't won since the 2006 John Deere but remember we are not backing him to win - theoretically he could be well down the list but leading Aussie.
Adam Scott is the obvious at $3, but the value is with Sendo.
I wouldn't be going too hard on this bet though.
Other stuff
There are any number of exotics to be played like HTH's, low round score, etc but it is hard enough to pick the winner of the tournament let alone who shoots the opening round blinder. It's not unusual to see a highly regarded player underperform in the first round only to bounce back in round two. This will kill your HTH betting, which is normally a multi to increase the price.
If you must have a first round low score wager, have a gold coin on Spencer Levin ($101). His stats don't reflect it, but his first round is quite often his best and he does have a 62 to his name.
Good luck, good golfing and great punting!
Cheers
Disco Stu
Monday 6 August 2012
Background
A bit about me. I am a single figure golfer, currently off 8 but been as low as 4. I love a punt on most things and watch a lot of golf. Foxtel is my best friend on weekends!
I used to write an email each week called Flop Shots and send it around to my mates. This may make it easier to share it around. Although some will ask what my credentials are, I see this as a bit of fun so please bear that in mind when placing a wager.
In giving my thoughts, I will outline why I think someone can win or can't and why others may be better value than backing Tiger etc as a favourite. Some betting suggestions will be top 10 or 25, low first round or leading nationality, eg Australian at the Open etc.
I hope you enjoy reading it.
Stay tuned for the first edition.
PS. I did successfully tip JJ Henry to win the Reno Tahoe Open this past weekend at $41 so fingers crossed we find some more of these.