G'Day,
Probably a tough week to start a blog on punting on golf, with the last major of the year, but let's have a crack.
Welcome to the first edition of Flop Shots, my thoughts on punting successfully on golf. I have had some successes in the past but as anyone who has ever had a bet on the golf knows, it's bloody tough. Guys that have form or have previously performed well at an event, can have shockers. And guys that haven't been sighted for ages can turn it around very quickly.
I will not be suggesting how much to outlay on these suggestions, that is up to the individual. I rarely have anymore than $20 on an outright bet, simply because the value is normally very good. You can turn $20 into $1000 if you find the right winner. Of course if you are backing a favorite, which in golf betting pre post is still likely to be $6 and upwards, you may need to increase your stake if you want a bigger profit. Each to their own.
To this week's golf:
PGA Championship
There is always a case for a favourite or a roughie, but this week I am with Jason Dufner ($23). When you consider his last 7 starts have provided 2 wins, a second at the Crowne Plaza, a T4 at the US Open and a 7th at last weeks Bridgestone, he ticks a lot of boxes. He's clearly in form, he's only missed the one cut this year (first event at Sony Hawaii) and finished second in this event last year.
Add to that his FIR (66%) and his GIR (69%) and he has the tools to get around Kiawah with minimal mistakes. His first two rounds are generally his best and if he can get the flat stick going early, he can be a bit streaky.
I know he's in the top 5 in betting which makes him one of the favoured players, but $23 is great value. If you prefer to hedge the bet a little, he is $3.75 to finish top 10, which would make a nice leg of a multi.
Top Aussie
Because this is the first issue and it is a major, I'll make a suggestion for this market.
John Senden has been in pretty good form over the past month and in fact the past year on the PGA tour. He has made 14 of 17 cuts this year and currently sits 37th in FedEx Cup pts. He has 5 top 10's from those 14 cuts made and I think if he finishes top 10, he will be leading Aussie (unless an Aussie wins of course). He was T19 last year and T4 in 2007 so he has performed in this in the past, although there are some badly missed cuts in there too. He hasn't won since the 2006 John Deere but remember we are not backing him to win - theoretically he could be well down the list but leading Aussie.
Adam Scott is the obvious at $3, but the value is with Sendo.
I wouldn't be going too hard on this bet though.
Other stuff
There are any number of exotics to be played like HTH's, low round score, etc but it is hard enough to pick the winner of the tournament let alone who shoots the opening round blinder. It's not unusual to see a highly regarded player underperform in the first round only to bounce back in round two. This will kill your HTH betting, which is normally a multi to increase the price.
If you must have a first round low score wager, have a gold coin on Spencer Levin ($101). His stats don't reflect it, but his first round is quite often his best and he does have a 62 to his name.
Good luck, good golfing and great punting!
Cheers
Disco Stu
Probably a tough week to start a blog on punting on golf, with the last major of the year, but let's have a crack.
Welcome to the first edition of Flop Shots, my thoughts on punting successfully on golf. I have had some successes in the past but as anyone who has ever had a bet on the golf knows, it's bloody tough. Guys that have form or have previously performed well at an event, can have shockers. And guys that haven't been sighted for ages can turn it around very quickly.
I will not be suggesting how much to outlay on these suggestions, that is up to the individual. I rarely have anymore than $20 on an outright bet, simply because the value is normally very good. You can turn $20 into $1000 if you find the right winner. Of course if you are backing a favorite, which in golf betting pre post is still likely to be $6 and upwards, you may need to increase your stake if you want a bigger profit. Each to their own.
To this week's golf:
PGA Championship
There is always a case for a favourite or a roughie, but this week I am with Jason Dufner ($23). When you consider his last 7 starts have provided 2 wins, a second at the Crowne Plaza, a T4 at the US Open and a 7th at last weeks Bridgestone, he ticks a lot of boxes. He's clearly in form, he's only missed the one cut this year (first event at Sony Hawaii) and finished second in this event last year.
Add to that his FIR (66%) and his GIR (69%) and he has the tools to get around Kiawah with minimal mistakes. His first two rounds are generally his best and if he can get the flat stick going early, he can be a bit streaky.
I know he's in the top 5 in betting which makes him one of the favoured players, but $23 is great value. If you prefer to hedge the bet a little, he is $3.75 to finish top 10, which would make a nice leg of a multi.
Top Aussie
Because this is the first issue and it is a major, I'll make a suggestion for this market.
John Senden has been in pretty good form over the past month and in fact the past year on the PGA tour. He has made 14 of 17 cuts this year and currently sits 37th in FedEx Cup pts. He has 5 top 10's from those 14 cuts made and I think if he finishes top 10, he will be leading Aussie (unless an Aussie wins of course). He was T19 last year and T4 in 2007 so he has performed in this in the past, although there are some badly missed cuts in there too. He hasn't won since the 2006 John Deere but remember we are not backing him to win - theoretically he could be well down the list but leading Aussie.
Adam Scott is the obvious at $3, but the value is with Sendo.
I wouldn't be going too hard on this bet though.
Other stuff
There are any number of exotics to be played like HTH's, low round score, etc but it is hard enough to pick the winner of the tournament let alone who shoots the opening round blinder. It's not unusual to see a highly regarded player underperform in the first round only to bounce back in round two. This will kill your HTH betting, which is normally a multi to increase the price.
If you must have a first round low score wager, have a gold coin on Spencer Levin ($101). His stats don't reflect it, but his first round is quite often his best and he does have a 62 to his name.
Good luck, good golfing and great punting!
Cheers
Disco Stu
No comments:
Post a Comment