Thursday, 30 August 2012

Deutsche Bank preview, issue 4 2012

Hey all,                  Running total: -$75

Last week's recap.

I know I'm speaking through my pocket, but Stricker was disappointing for mine. Ok he did make the cut, as I thought he would, but I'm sure he would agree with me that his performance was below par (pardon the pun).

He really didn't let loose at any stage, given he can catch fire at times and make streaks of birdies. He uncharacteristically made a lot of bogeys, perhaps with the pressure of knowing he needed a good effort to make the Ryder Cup. Bottom line is he didn't win for us.

So to this week.

Perhaps not surprisingly, there are any number of chances. My research suggests this is a scorers event, as opposed to a grinders event. So with that in mind, I have narrowed it down to two.

Louis Oosthuizen ($26) & Bubba Watson ($26) are my top picks. I have a slight leaning to the South African and here's why.

He makes birdies.
He has performed well in big events (think Open, Masters).
When he has won or performed well, his GIR is usually very high. He was over 70% at the Masters, over 80% @ the Houston open and even when it comes down, its amongst the leaders for the event. He was just short of 78% last week and got a T5. I'll be having my first $15 on him.

The other $10 is on
Bubba. Why? Because Bubba is Bubba. He also has pretty good GIR stats and with his flair and imagination, he can always post a number. I guess we're punting on him hitting his % of greens this week, but if he does look out. He's been around the mark the last few events since his missed cut at the
US open and his performances in the tougher WGC events this year is noteworthy.

There are some dangers. In order: Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker, who can bounce back. If you love having a hail Mary bet, give Brendan de Jonge a go at upwards of $201. He's $11 to finish top 10.

In theory its easier as the fields narrow over the next few weeks, but we all know that's a myth.

Time to get a collect on the board or this blog will go the way of cassettes and VHS.

Oh and for those interested, my first round last week in the clubbies was a disaster. I'd suggest sticking to punting golf rather than playing, but that hasn't been much better. Fingers crossed that changes this week.

Best of luck,

Disco

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